Vietnam today is one of the fastest growing countries in the Asian Development the Pula Wosu Dov pointed out. According to Bloomberg News forecast the future, Vietnam's economic development prospects will be ranked third in Asia after China and India. Momentum, will be among the top ten of the world, attracting capital outflows from the EU and Russia. But the future of the Vietnamese economy is also facing a big problem, because it may become the object of fierce competition of the world's big powers, probably because even the South China Sea territorial disputes with China, the outbreak of armed conflict, resulting in the participation of the United States and Japan, Russia will take the opportunity to Vietnam arms sales boon.
The Pula Wosu Dov, Russian State Energy Research Institute, explained that he had been Vietnam as a possible future one of the powder keg, because many people interested in the geopolitical must read American scholar Samuel Huntington's "civilization conflict ", the book clearly depicts the script of a possible outbreak of world war in the 2020s. Huntington claims that after the 2020s, U.S. companies will significantly speed up the development of the South China Sea oilfield speed. The region is mainly controlled by the Chinese, under the control of individual regions in Vietnam. With the continued strong military power, China's confidence in continued enhancements, ready to completely control the entire South China Sea, the resumption of the exercise of the South China Sea sovereignty. Vietnam will be stubborn resistance. Vietnam warships armed conflict in Vietnam in 1979, self-defense war, military strikes again in Vietnam. Then the world will be forced to directly or indirectly involved in the conflict.
Huntington's "clash of civilizations" written in 1996, but has not yet obsolete, many speculated that the book has been confirmed the Pula Wosu Dov pointed out. Now, U.S. companies are indeed Vietnamese continental shelf exploration oil field, and quite smooth. Gazprom is also cooperation with Vietnam, it has been found that the two gas fields. Russian geologist involved in oil and gas development in the South China Sea, Chinese warships have been trying to prevent Russia and Vietnam to unauthorized exploration of oil and gas resources in the South China Sea, unpleasant events often occur, and even led to serious diplomatic conflict between China and Vietnam. Vietnamese leaders have repeatedly claimed that their fishing boat was the expulsion of Chinese warships, accused China of obstructing the construction of wells in Vietnam. More civilian vessels and warships in the spring of last year, several friction events that led to a sharp deterioration in relations between the two countries.
Russian experts pointed out that the tension between the situation in Vietnam a long time.Obviously, this is the Central Vietnam in the South China Sea continental shelf oil and gas resources divided on the issue of dispute caused. A point of contention between the two sides near the Chinese border in the northern region. Vietnam's southern continental shelf areas, China has no requirements, and the Russian foreign oil companies and Western companies where exploration. In addition to China to resume sovereignty over the whole of the South China Sea and the Spratly Islands, Paracel Islands, the control cargo movements must pass through the main routes between Southeast Asia and Europe, the Middle East, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines is also an attempt to compete for the South China Sea islands. United States is worried the South China Sea shipping restrictions on the freedom to start a strong intervention in the South China Sea dispute, late last year announced the construction of military bases in northern Australia, Darwin, and the results led to China's strong dissatisfaction.
Vietnam conflict has been going on for decades may be exacerbated in recent the Pula Wosu Dov think. All appearances, both China and Vietnam a heated argument in the northern region of the South China Sea continental shelf contain rich oil and gas resources, geologists get all the data illustrates this point. Therefore, China may be intolerable attempt to use force to solve problems, face greater problems in the future of Iran, the more urgent. As we all know, Iran is one of China's oil supply. If you decide to use force against the lessons of Vietnam, may be in seeking to serve multiple purposes. First, control the South China Sea continental shelf in the northern region, referring to the rich oil and gas resources, thereby reducing the heavy dependence on external energy supply; Following the 1979 self-defense war lessons of Vietnam again, after all, China's military strength is several times stronger than Vietnam .People's Liberation Army can not defeat the newspaper, it will be like the modern Russian army can not defeat the Georgian army, weak and shameful; Third, the Chinese coastal areas now very uneven development of central and western regions, coastal areas and the United States and Europe more closely, the United States might try to incite China's wealthy coastal areas split from the central. China may be warned by the victory of the lessons of Vietnam, a small-scale war opponents not to act rashly.
Russian experts said that in recent years Vietnam has been a lot of purchasing advanced Russian weapons, including the Su-30MK2 fighters, missile boats, "Leopard" frigates, submarines, "fortress" mobile coastal defense missile system and its anti-ship cruise missiles, which overtake China as the second major importer of Russian weapons after India. Moreover, Vietnam weapons and equipment imported from Russia is highly targeted, or is mainly used to deal with conflict at sea, protection of offshore oil and gas fields, or for the protection of the coastline. Therefore, it is easy to come to Vietnam is prepared to deal with conflict conclusions arms imports from Vietnam.
The Pula Wosu Dov think that the Russian oil and gas companies have a grand plan in cooperation with Vietnam to develop oil and gas resources. However, once the more Yin Nanhai conflict, Russia will eventually involuntarily involved in the conflict, but Russia will try to avoid force participation, but to fight to close Yuli, continue to provide Vietnam with a large number of weapons and equipment, making huge arms sales profits. Vietnamese army in the last century has been three times to prove their combat effectiveness, therefore, the Chinese army in any way will be difficult to easy victory. Vietnam once the conflict, will face the important issue of the intervention of the United States and Japan. Now control most of the fairways of the South China Sea, China's victory in Vietnam will completely change this situation, the United States will never ignore the stand. For Japan, the waterway through the South China Sea is also extremely important, and can even be said to determine the lifeblood of economic development in Japan. Therefore, Vietnam in the event of armed conflict, it is very likely to evolve into a new world war.
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